Kukangana kwa Russia ndi Ukraine kumakweza mitengo ya gasi ndi methanol

Mkangano womwe ukukula kwambiri pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine wabweretsa vuto lalikulu pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi.Mayiko angapo akuwonjezera zilango ku Russia pazachuma ndipo zilangozo zitha kufikira gawo lamagetsi.Zotsatira zake, mitengo yamafuta ndi gasi wachilengedwe yakwera posachedwa.Pa Marichi 3, tsogolo lamafuta a Brent lakwera kufika pa $116/bbl, kukwera kwatsopano kuyambira Sep 2013;ndi WTI crude futures ikupita ku $113/bbl, zotsitsimula zaka khumi.Mtengo wa gasi wachilengedwe ku Europe udakwera ndi 60% pa Marichi 2, kufika pambiri.

Kuyambira 2021, mtengo wamafuta achilengedwe ku Europe wakhala ukukwera kwambiri, kukwera kuchokera pa 19.58 EUR/MWh koyambirira kwa chaka kufika pa 180.68 EUR/MWh kuyambira pa Dec 21, 2021.

Mtengowo udakwera chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa zinthu.90% ya gasi wachilengedwe ku Europe amadalira kuchokera kunja, ndipo Russia ndiye chiyambi chachikulu choperekera gasi ku Europe.Mu 2020, EU idaitanitsa pafupifupi 152.65 biliyoni m3 ya gasi wachilengedwe kuchokera ku Russia, 38% yazonse zomwe zidalowa kunja;ndipo gasi wachilengedwe wochokera ku Russia adatenga pafupifupi 30% yamafuta onse.

Ndi kuchuluka kwa mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine, Germany sabata yatha idayimitsa kuvomereza mapaipi achilengedwe a Nord Stream 2.Purezidenti waku US Biden adalengezanso zilango motsutsana ndi polojekiti yapaipi ya Nord Stream 2.Kuphatikiza apo, mapaipi ena ku Ukraine adawonongeka kuyambira nkhondoyi.Zotsatira zake, nkhawa yokhudzana ndi gasi wachilengedwe yakula, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mtengowo ukwere kwambiri.

Zomera za Methanol kunja kwa China zonse zimachokera ku gasi ngati chakudya.Kuyambira Jun 2021, zomera zina za methanol ku Germany ndi Netherlands zalengeza kuti ziyimitsa kupanga chifukwa mtengo wachilengedwe unali wokwera kwambiri womwe wachulukiranso kangapo kuchokera pa mlingo chaka chatha.

Zomera za Methanol ku Europe

Pakadali pano, mphamvu ya methanol ndi matani 4.355 miliyoni / chaka ku Europe, zomwe zimawerengera 2.7% ya chiwopsezo chapadziko lonse lapansi.Kufunidwa kwa methanol kunafika pafupifupi matani 9 miliyoni ku Europe mu 2021 ndipo kupitilira 50% ya methanol kumadalira kuchokera kunja.Zoyambira zazikulu zomwe zidathandizira methanol ku Europe zinali Middle East, North America ndi Russia (zowerengera 18% ya ku Europe komwe methanol idachokera).

Kutulutsa kwa Methanol ku Russia kunafika matani 3 miliyoni pachaka, matani 1.5 miliyoni omwe adatumizidwa ku Europe.Ngati kuperekedwa kwa methanol ku Russia kuyimitsidwa, msika waku Europe ukhoza kukumana ndi kutaya kwa 120-130kt pamwezi.Ndipo ngati kupanga methanol ku Russia kusokonezedwa, kupezeka kwa methanol padziko lonse lapansi kungakhudzidwe.

Posachedwa, ndi zilango zomwe zakhazikitsidwa, malonda a methanol ku Europe ayamba kugwira ntchito pomwe mtengo wa methanol wa FOB Rotterdam ukukwera kwambiri, kukwera 12% pa Marichi 2.

Ndi mkangano womwe sungathe kuthetsedwa kwakanthawi kochepa, msika waku Europe ukhoza kukhala wovutitsidwa ndi kusowa kwa gasi wachilengedwe pakanthawi kochepa komanso kwakanthawi.Zomera za Methanol ku Europe zitha kukhudzidwa ndi kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta achilengedwe.Mtengo wa methanol wa FOB Rotterdam ukuyembekezeka kupitiliza kukwera, ndipo katundu wochulukirapo atha kuyenda kuchokera ku Middle East ndi North America kupita ku Europe pomwe arbitrage ikufalikira.Zotsatira zake, katundu wa methanol omwe sanali aku Iran ku China atsika.Kuphatikiza apo, kutsegulidwa kwa arbitrage, China yotumizanso methanol ku Europe ikhoza kuwonjezeka.Kupereka kwa methanol ku China kukuyembekezeka kukhala kokwanira, koma zinthu zitha kusintha.

Komabe, mitengo ya methanol ikukwera, zomera zapansi pa MTO zimawonongeka kwambiri ku China.Chifukwa chake, kufunikira kwa methanol kumatha kukhudzidwa ndipo phindu la methanol likhoza kuchepetsedwa.