Momwe mungachepetsere kusiyana kwamitengo pakati pa thonje ndi VSF?

Zogulitsa zambiri zatsika kwambiri mwezi watha.Pamsika wam'tsogolo, matalikidwe a rebar, iron ore ndi Shanghai mkuwa wokhala ndi ndalama zambiri zakhala motsatana 16%, 26% ndi 15%.Kuphatikiza pa zofunikira, kukwera kwa chiwongoladzanja cha Fed ndiye chinthu chachikulu chomwe chimakhudza kwambiri.

Ngati titsatira unyolo wa nsalu, kutsika kwa thonje ndi mapangano akuluakulu a PSF ndi 25% (5,530yuan/mt) ndi 15% (1,374yuan/mt), pomwe VSF yakwera ndi 1,090yuan/mt. nthawi.M'malo mwake, kaya mtengo wa VSF kapena kufalikira kwa thonje, PSF ndi VSF mu Marichi 2021 zidachitanso chimodzimodzi, koma maziko asintha.

Kusiyanaku kwalembedwa pansipa:

1. Pali zosintha m'malo akuluakulu, kuyambira pakutulutsa ndalama zapadziko lonse chaka chatha kufika pakuchulukirachulukira pakali pano, koma chuma cha China chikadali chochuluka.

2. Kusintha kwa mfundo ndi ndondomeko za thonje (kuletsa thonje la Xinjiang) kwachititsa kuti mtengo wa thonje wa ku China ukhale wotsika kwambiri.

3. Kusintha kwa mtengo wa VSF.Poyerekeza ndi 2021, mtengo wopanga ndi wokwera pafupifupi 1,600yuan/mt, ndipo mtengo wazinthu zopangira (zamkati) ndi wokwera pafupifupi 1,200yuan/mt.Choncho, phindu lachepetsedwa kuchokera ku 2,000yuan / mt chaka chatha mpaka -900yuan / mt chaka chino.

4. Kusintha mulingo wogwirira ntchito, womwe ndi pafupifupi 5 peresenti yotsika kuposa ya chaka chatha.

5. Kusintha kuyembekezera.Chaka chatha, padali chiyembekezo cha kukwera kwa mitengo komwe kumabwera chifukwa chotulutsa ndalama komanso kuyambiranso kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi, koma pano ndiye chiyembekezo cha kuchepa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi.

Chinthu chokhacho chofanana ndikugulitsa bwino kwa VSF.Mu 2021, VSF idayamba kugwa kwambiri itatha kusuntha chammbali pamtunda wapamwamba pafupifupi mwezi umodzi ndi theka.Tsopano zimatengera ngati pali mayendedwe amphamvu othandizira VSF pamlingo wapano kapena kukwera kwina.Kuwona kuchokera ku zosiyana zomwe tazitchula pamwambapa, mfundo yoyamba ndi yachisanu mwachiwonekere ndi yosapindulitsa.Mfundo yachitatu ndi yachinayi (mtengo ndi kuperekera) ikhoza kuthandizira VSF, koma pamene zopereka zikuchepa, kufunikira kukucheperachepera, kotero kuti kupereka sikukwanira kuthandizira VSF.Chachiwiri, kukhazikitsidwa kwa chiletso cha thonje la Xinjiang kungapangitse ogwiritsa ntchito kutsika kufunafuna njira zina monga thonje lochokera kunja kapena ulusi wina.VSF ndi njira, koma gawo mumsika waku China litha kugwidwa ndi thonje, kotero ndizovuta kunena ngati ndi bullish kapena bearish factor.

Pomaliza, poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, chilengedwe chachikulu chabweretsa zinthu zina zoyipa ku VSF.Pakalipano, mtengo wamtengo wapatali ndi wogulitsidwa kale ndi zinthu zamphamvu zomwe zimathandizira mtengo wa VSF, choncho tiyenera kumvetsera kusintha kwa mbali ziwirizi.Mofanana ndi chaka chatha, kutembenuzidwa kwa ulusi wosiyana mu ntchito yotsika pansi kumakhala kochititsa chidwi pamene mtengo wa VSF wachepetsedwa kwambiri.